Mexico gains edge in global trade
Mexico is experiencing a new export boom that could strengthen its position at the center of North American supply chains, with the country’s exports of machinery and electrical equipment increasing significantly in recent years. The latest surge is being powered by technology rather than the automotive industry that has traditionally dominated Mexican manufacturing. Economists at BBVA México said the country’s exports of machinery covered under Chapter 84 of the Harmonized System — a category increasingly driven by computers and data-processing equipment — have doubled in just a few years to roughly $200 billion on a trailing 12-month basis.
The bank tied much of the increase to massive spending by U.S. technology companies on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Mexico’s real manufacturing exports, particularly higher-complexity products, are running above their long-term growth trend. Machinery, electrical equipment and vehicles — Chapters 84, 85 and 87 of the Harmonized System — now represent nearly three-quarters of the country’s manufacturing exports.
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Despite concerns over the recent shift in US trade policy away from free trade, Mexico is experiencing a new export boom. BBVA economists said in a report released Tuesday that the expansion is being fueled by the AI capital expenditure cycle, escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and Mexico’s relatively favorable tariff position compared with other major U.S. trading partners.
The development could provide fresh evidence that nearshoring — the movement of manufacturing and supply chains closer to U.S. consumers — is evolving beyond the automotive, appliance and traditional maquiladora industries that have long defined cross-border trade. Mexico gains ground as a US supplier, with the country’s biggest advantage remaining geography combined with preferential access to the world’s largest consumer market.
Mexico and the U.S. have become each other’s largest trading partners, and roughly 16% of U.S. imports now come from Mexico, according to BBVA. Another analysis from the Economics Observatory puts Mexico’s share of U.S. imports at a record 17% in early 2026, more than double China’s 7.2%. Mexico’s fastest-growing shipments to the U.S. include computers, phones and electronics, and the country overtook China in 2025 as the leading supplier of advanced technology products to the U.S., according to the Economics Observatory.
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BBVA found that computer exports are highly correlated with U.S. private investment in information-processing equipment and spending by hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. BBVA said Mexico’s trade surplus in Chapter 84 is now entirely explained by computer exports, suggesting the country is developing a comparative advantage in the sector.
The export boom is unfolding as protectionism increases around the world, making Mexico’s access to the U.S. market potentially more valuable. U.S. tariffs have risen to their highest levels since the 1960s, including higher duties on vehicles, steel, aluminum and other products.
By the end of 2025, Mexico faced an effective U.S. tariff rate of less than 5%, compared with about 33% for China and an overall U.S. average of approximately 10%, according to the Economics Observatory. About 88% of Mexican goods already enter the U.S. duty-free under USMCA. This differential could become one of Mexico’s most powerful nearshoring incentives, as manufacturers decide whether to supply U.S. customers from Asia, Europe or Mexico.
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USMCA itself has become a source of uncertainty, with the U.S. declining to extend the agreement through 2042 during this year’s joint review. The decision did not terminate USMCA or change its existing trade and investment rules, but it means the nearshoring equation increasingly depends on how companies assess the durability of North American trade rules.
Mexico will continue to play a significant role in North American supply chains.
